1. ETFs
2. Early Detection
3. Stock Drill — Top
4. Stock Drill — Bottom
5. Theme Intelligence
6. Methodology
💡 Analysis
💡 Analysis
Top Conviction (20)
Bottom 20
All 80
09 Jun 2026 — XLK #1. Dev 7/20. Commodities 2/20. New: XLRE · EWQ · OIH. Fallen: USO · XLE · IGV.
Top 20 ETFs — composite momentum score
#
Ticker
Bucket
Score ↕
1M %
3M %
6M %
12M %
Rel 3M
Brd
Cons %
Flag
Bucket distribution
Fallen angels
New entrants
Bottom 20 ETFs by composite score — weakest momentum. UNL, IGV, MCHI, TLT, UUP lead the underperformers.
#
Ticker
Bucket
Score ↕
1M %
3M %
6M %
12M %
Rel 3M
Brd
Cons %
All 80 ETFs ranked by composite score. Green = Top 20. Amber = excluded. Click headers to sort.
# ↕
Ticker
Bucket
Score ↕
1M %
3M %
6M %
12M %
Rel 3M
Brd
Cons %
Sigs
Status
▲ TOP (Upside)
▼ BOTTOM (Downside)
Upside momentum building. XLK, XLF, XRT, ITB, EWG all fire RV+AC. No 3-signal hits this week. 6 ETFs in convergence.
All Signals
Rank Velocity
Acceleration
Dormancy
Convergence
Signal 1
Rank Velocity ▲
Score jump over 4 weeks .
Signal 2
Acceleration ▲
Vol-adj 1M outpacing vol-adj 3M average.
Signal 3
Dormancy Breakout
Short-term rank ≥65th AND long-term ≤55th.
ETF Convergence — 2+ upside signals
Ticker Bucket Signals 1M % 3M % 6M % 12M % Read
Downside momentum building ▼ ITA fires all 3 downside ETF signals. XOP and XLE in conviction but decelerating. UUP (USD) losing momentum confirms Intl Dev/EM upside. 16 ETF + 15 stock convergence hits.
All Signals
RV Decline
Deceleration
Deterioration
Convergence
Downside 1
RV Decline ▼
Composite score drop over 4 weeks.
Downside 2
Deceleration ▼
Vol-adj 1M falling below 3M monthly average.
Downside 3
Deterioration ▼
Short-term rank ≤35th AND long-term ≥45th.
ETF Downside Convergence — 2+ signals ▼
Ticker Bucket Signals 1M % 3M % 6M % 12M % Note
Stock Downside Convergence — 15 stocks ▼
Ticker Name ETFs Signals 1M % 3M % 6M % 12M %
Top-down drill — upside: 86 stocks from 18 conviction + 5 early detection ETFs. Combined = 50% ETF exposure + 50% own momentum. Amber = multi-conviction (2+ ETFs). Gold = cross-layer (conviction + early detection).
Conviction Top 20
Early Det. Top 10
Multi-Conviction (3)
Cross-Layer ★★ (1)
By Theme
All 110
# Ticker Name Conv ETFs ED ETFs Combined Own Mom ETF Exp 1M % 3M % 6M % 12M % Cons %
Top-down drill — downside: Same 98-stock universe sorted ascending. Weakest momentum + lowest ETF exposure. Downside convergence = stocks firing 2+ downside early detection signals.
Conviction Bot 20
Early Det. Bot 10
Multi-Conv. Bot
Cross-Layer Bot
By Theme ▼
Downside Conv. (15)
All 110 (asc.)
# Ticker Name Conv ETFs ED ETFs Combined Own Mom ETF Exp 1M % 3M % 6M % 12M % Cons %
Conviction ▲ Top
Conviction ▼ Bottom
Early Det. ▲ Top
Early Det. ▼ Bottom
Conviction Screen — Top Stocks per Theme. Sorted by ETF weight (largest positions first — size proxy). ETF Wt = exposure score. Mom = own momentum percentile (≥ 60 green / 40–60 amber / <40 red). C+E = cross-layer. Internal use only.
Conviction Screen — Bottom Stocks per Theme. Sorted by combined score ascending (weakest momentum + lowest ETF exposure). Stocks already in the top list for the same theme are excluded.
Early Detection — Top Stocks per Theme. Stocks from early detection ETF universe (XLB, XRT, ITB, KRE, EWG), sorted by ETF weight. Narrative context from quantitative screen.
Early Detection — Bottom Stocks per Theme. Weakest momentum stocks from early detection ETF universe. Stocks in top list excluded.
Architecture
Universe
80 ETFs across 6 buckets. SGOV, BIL, JAAA excluded from top-20 eligibility (dividend accrual distorts momentum). Remain in 80-ETF percentile base and all early detection signals.
Stock drill-down
Top-5 holdings fetched from 18 equity conviction ETFs + 5 early detection ETFs (XLB, XRT, ITB, KRE, EWG). PFF excluded. 98 unique stocks. Combined = 50% ETF exposure percentile + 50% own momentum percentile.
Tab structure
1. ETFs (Top/Bottom/All) · 2. Early Detection (Upside/Downside, with sub-sub-tabs) · 3. Stock Drill Top · 4. Stock Drill Bottom · 5. Theme Intelligence · 6. Methodology
Conviction Screen
Skip convention
1M: 0 days · 3M: 5 days · 6M: 10 days · 12M: 10 days
Weights
1M × 35% + 3M × 30% + 6M × 20% + 12M × 15%
Vol adjustment
Return ÷ annualised realised vol (252-day basis). Applied to 1M and 3M only.
Ranking
Stage 1: top 40 from 77 eligible by composite. Stage 2: re-rank by consistency (% up-weeks, 13 weeks) → top 20.
Flag changes
New / Fallen / Consistent vs 5 trading days ago.
Early Detection — Upside
Rank Velocity
Composite score today minus score 4 weeks ago (~20 trading days). Top 20 by velocity gain.
Acceleration
(Vol-adj 1M) − (Vol-adj 3M ÷ 3). Positive = last month outpacing 3M average.
Dormancy Breakout
Short-term rank ≥ 65th pctile AND long-term rank ≤ 55th pctile.
Early Detection — Downside
RV Decline
Composite score drop over 4 weeks. Bottom 20 by velocity decline.
Deceleration
(Vol-adj 1M) − (Vol-adj 3M ÷ 3) < 0. Last month below 3M monthly average.
Deterioration
Short-term rank ≤ 35th pctile AND long-term rank ≥ 45th pctile. Was strong, now fading.
ETF Momentum Screener